The present value of human life losses associated with COVID-19 and likely cost savings from vaccination in Kenya

Abstract

Background: The study estimates the total present value (TPVKENYA ) of human lives lost due to COVID-19, total indirect costs attributed to COVID-19 mortality, total direct costs of all COVID-19 cases, and projected cost savings due to COVID-19 vaccination as of 25 July 2022. Methods: We used a human capital approach (HKA) model to estimate TPVKENYA . The indirect cost of COVID-19 (ICi=1,..,6)  for each of the six productive age groups equals the present value multiplied by the relevant employment-to-population ratio. The direct cost (DCi=1,..,4) for each of the four disease severity categories (asymptomatic, mild/moderate, severe, critical) is the product of the number of COVID-19 cases in a severity category and the average total direct cost per patient. The total direct cost saving equals the number of infections averted with vaccination multiplied by the average total direct cost per patient treated. The total indirect cost saving equals the number of COVID-19 deaths prevented with vaccination multiplied by the average total indirect cost per death. Results: The cumulative 5670 human life losses had a TPVKENYA  of Int$268,408,687 and an average total present value of Int$47,338 per human life. A re-run of the HKA model with (a) discount rates of 5% and 10% reduced TPVKENYA by 16% and 39%, respectively; (b) Africa's highest life expectancy of 78.76 years and world's highest life expectancy of 88.17 years increased TPVKENYA by 79% and 129%, respectively; (c) excess mortality of 180,215 increased TPVKENYA by 3,078%. Total indirect and direct costs of COVID-19 were Int$36,833 per death and Int$1,648.2 per patient/case, respectively. The 30% target population's COVID-19 vaccination coverage may have saved Kenya a total cost of Int$ 1,400,945,809.  Conclusions: The pandemic continues to erode Kenya's human health and economic development. However, scaling up COVID-19 vaccination coverage would save Kenya substantial direct and indirect costs.