Sustainability of the regional financial system: a case study of the Northwestern Federal District

Abstract

Background: This article provides an assessment of the sustainability of Russian regions’ financial systems. The study is based on the methods of generalization and synthesis, correlation-regression analysis, and multivariate classification. Since the structure of the regional financial system is complex, several works are devoted to studying its sustainability issues. The relevance of the study topic is confirmed by the lack of a systematic approach to assessing the integral index of sustainability and the possibility of using various tools in determining the complex indicator. Methods: This  methodology with application of mathematical statistics methods makes it possible to assess the financial system sustainability in four sectors, to include the leading indicators in the assessment, and to identify regions with extreme values of debt burden indicators. The method was tested for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) for the period 2010 - 2019  to classify the regions according to three levels of debt sustainability. Data collection from the 1st January to 30th April 2022 included statistical data from government open internet sources, sectors studied relate to government, and municipal budgets in the NWFD. Authors analyzed regional debt sustainability indicators and identified themes in the field of sustainability studies for the NWFD. Results: An increased level of financial system sustainability was observed among the  NWFD regions in the corporative and personal finance sectors, indicating a significant contribution of businesses and households to maintaining the balance and sustainability of the financial system in Russia as a whole. The results of the study also identified that the NWFD regions belong to three clusters: cluster 1 - high debt sustainability; cluster 2 - medium debt sustainability; and cluster 3 - low debt sustainability. Conclusions: The study results allowed the identification of regions with a constantly high level of debt, financial, and corporative sustainability.