The association between climate variables and tuberculosis in Kolaka District, Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, 2013–2020: a Bayesian autoregressive model

Abstract

Background Tuberculosis is one of the diseases that requires comprehensive treatment. This disease is highly contagious and can be transmitted through the air. Climate factors play a role in the increasing cases of tuberculosis. This study aimed to determine the correlation between climatic variables and TB in Kolaka District, Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, Methods This research was modeled using an autoregressive (AR) Bayesian model with three possible likelihoods; Gaussian, Poisson and Negative Binomial responses. Results Minimum temperature, a coefficient of 4.234 suggests that for every 1 degree increase in minimum temperature, there is an estimated increase of approximately four cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Maximum temperature, a coefficient of 17.851 suggests that for every 1 degree increase in maximum temperature, there is an estimated increase of around 17-18 cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Average temperature, a coefficient of 4.234 suggests that for every 1 degree increase in average temperature, there is an estimated increase of approximately four cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Humidity, a coefficient of -13.413 suggests that for every 1% increase in humidity, there is an estimated decrease of around 13 cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Rainfall, a coefficient of -0.327 suggests that for every 1 mm increase in rainfall, there is an estimated decrease of around 0.327 cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Light, a coefficient of -4.322 suggests that for every 1-hour increase in light duration, there is an estimated decrease of around four cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Conclusions Climate change has a significant impact on tuberculosis through temperature-related factors. These factors influence the prevalence, spread, and vulnerability to TB. Addressing these challenges requires a holistic approach involving adaptation planning. Strong public health systems and healthcare infrastructure can help mitigate the risks and impacts of climate change-related tuberculosis.