Central European strategies in the new Cold War: between balancing and bandwagoning

Abstract

This article argues that the security of Central Europe – defined as stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black See–is based first and foremost on the viability and engagement of the Western alliance, understood as NATO and the European Union. The security and defense policies in the region are designed in relation to NATO and bilateral relations with the United States, with limited attempts to achieve some degree of self-sufficiency. Therefore, to understand the security of Central Europe and its individual nations, it is essential to understand their attitudes and fears related to alliances as well as their perceptions of Russia’s intentions. It is posited here that the concept that can best explain the behavior of the nations of the region, allowing also for forecasting future behavior, is the balance of threat theory, as put forward by Stephen Walt. According to the theory, the nations facing threat chose to either balance the threatening power by joining forces with other actors and forming alliances or joining in with their predator, which constitutes a bandwagoning behavior. Historically, especially during the interwar period, these strategies have been employed by Central European nations. Today, the security environment is arguably very different– we have NATO, EU, and American engagement in the region. However, the international environment has deteriorated recently, especially since the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Arguably, Central European states have responded by falling, to some extent, into patterns of behavior familiar from the past, with some clinging to closer relations with their external patron (the United States) and some hedging their bets and opting for relative neutrality or even closer relations with Russia. The article argues that four factors determine states’ behavior vis-à-vis the Russian threat: geography, history, predator intentions, and the perception of allied reliability.