CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential evapotranspiration for 2021-2060

Abstract

The “Future Global Aridity Index and PET Database” provides high-resolution (30 arc-seconds) average annual and monthly global estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity index (AI) for 22 CMIP6 Earth System Models for two future (2021-2041; 2041-2060) and two historical (1960-1990; 1970–2000) time periods, for each of four shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Three multimodel ensemble averages are also provided (All; Majority Consensus, High Risk) with different level of risks linked to climate model uncertainty. An overview of the methodological approach, geospatial implementation and a technical evaluation of the results is provided. Historical results were compared for technical validation with weather station data (PET: r 2 = 0.72; AI: r 2 = 0.91) and the CRU_TS v 4.04 dataset (PET: r 2 = 0.67; AI: r 2 = 0.80). Within the context of projected significant change in the near- and medium-term, the “Future_Global_AI_PET Database” provides a set of data projections and tools available for a variety of scientific and practical applications, illustrating trends and magnitude of predicted climatic and eco-hydrological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. The Future_Global_AI_PET Database is archived in the ScienceDB repository and available online at: https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.nbsdc.00086