Affiliation:
1. Tashkent State University of Economics
Abstract
In this paper, forecasted the main macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation, economic growth, nominal wages, money supply and exchange rate in the context of the transition to inflation targeting policy in Uzbekistan. The medium-term forecasting covers the periods from Q1 2022 to Q4 2024 using AR, VAR, ARIMA and DF models. Also, the accuracy of the forecasting model results checked by MSE, MAE and MAPE methods. Furthermore, developed conclusions and suggestions based on forecast results.
Publisher
Tashkent State University of Economics
Subject
General Medicine,General Medicine,General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Environmental Science,Geriatrics and Gerontology,General Medicine,Linguistics and Language,Anthropology,History,Language and Linguistics,Cultural Studies,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance,General Medicine,General Medicine,General Medicine
Reference15 articles.
1. Maxmudov N.M., Asqarova M.T., Umarov I.Yu., Makroiqtisodiy tahlil va prognozlash. –Darslik. –T.: Iqtisodiyot, 2014 102-249 b.
2. Sédillot, F., Pain, N. (2003). Indicator models of real GDP growth in selected OECD countries. Economics department working papers no. 364 pp. 493.
3. Bokhari, S. H., Feridun, M. (2006). Forecasting inflation through econometric models: An empirical study on Pakistani data. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 7(1), 39-47.
4. Claveria, O., Pons, E., Ramos, R. (2007). Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(1), 47-69.
5. de Silva, A. (2008). Forecasting macroeconomic variables using a structural state space model. MPRA Paper No. 11060, posted 14 Oct 2008, p. 206.