The Effects of Climate Change Atmospheric Tempreture, Rainfall Pattern and Land Use Malaria Incidence Rates: a Retrospective Trend Analysis Over a Ten-year Period 2010-2020 in Luapula and Southern Province of Zambia

Abstract

Abstract This study examines the impact of climate change on malaria incidence in Zambia. It focuses on variations in prevalence influenced by climatic and environmental factors. The study adopts a retrospective comparative analytical approach, utilizing 157 case records from each province. It investigates temperature, seasonal variations, and land use activities. The findings reveal a fluctuating trend of rainfall from 2010 to 2020, with a significant association between malaria incidence and rainfall (p-value = 0.041). In 2019, Southern Province experienced the highest percentage of drought (64%), resulting in reduced malaria transmission due to unfavorable environmental conditions for mosquito larvae. Demographic data highlight an urban-rural divide, with Luapula Province exhibiting a higher number of malaria cases among children under five. These results emphasize the critical role of climate change and local factors in malaria transmission dynamics.