Abstract
Climate change and human activities both have a considerable impact on runoff depth, which are important parts of a changing ecosystem. Nevertheless, the main focus of hydrological response research has been on investigating the impact of climate change on the depth of runoff. In contrast, there has been limited emphasis on comprehending the precise mechanisms through which changes in land use, in relation to human activities, influence runoff depth. This paper utilized the MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model to simulate the runoff depth process in the study area from 1980 to 2020. It estimated the influence of climate change and land use change on runoff depth using the runoff reduction method. Additionally, it quantified the impact of different land use changes on runoff depth by employing the spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model. The study demonstrates that the MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model is capable of accurately reproducing the runoff depth of the Songnen Plain. Both the R and NSE values for both the base and validation periods exceed 0.75. Moreover, from a geographical standpoint, climate change has a greater influence on runoff depth than human activity. Nevertheless, the impact of human activity is more evident in small, specific areas. As human activities intensify, their impact on runoff depth also increases, with the average contribution rising from 20% to over 30%. Changes in various land types within the watershed can be used to observe the influence of human activities on runoff depth. More precisely, a 10% rise in the rate of change of construction land, dry land, and unoccupied land results in an increase in runoff depth of 6.21 mm, 2.45 mm, and 1.14 mm, respectively. Conversely, a 10% rise in the rate of alteration of marsh, paddy, and forest land leads to a reduction in the depth of runoff by 9.49 mm, 6.46 mm, and 3.07 mm, respectively. This research can contribute to improving the efficiency of water and land resource utilization and optimizing land resource governance.