Affiliation:
1. Norwegian University of Science and Technology
2. Technical University of Denmark
Abstract
Abstract
The wide range of projections for shipping poses a challenge for modeling the sector in Integrated Assessment Models (affecting how attainable decarbonization is in the sector) and Earth System Models (impacting the climate contribution of shipping emissions). This study explores an approach to develop spatially explicit energy demand projections for shipping in alignment with the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways framework and IAM projections of global fossil fuel demand. Our results show that shipping could require between 14.4EJ and 20EJ by 2050, corresponding to a 3% and 44% increase from 2018 for SSP1 and SSP3 scenarios. Furthermore, the energy projections we present in this publication can be combined with different fuel mixes to derive emission inventories for climate modeling and, thus, better understanding the challenges in mitigating emissions for shipping. Through that, we aim to present a framework to incorporate detailed spatial shipping inventories and increase transparency for the scientific community.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
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