Mapping potentially risky import products in Africa

Abstract

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have exposed Africa’s overreliance on a limited number of countries and products, leading to severe supply chain disruptions and shortages. This study identifies Africa’s potentially risky import products using three criteria: market concentration, relevance (share of product in a country’s total imports), and substitutability. Using bilateral import data for 5,384 products from 1995–2021, we find that 10–15% of Africa’s import commodities are risky. Additionally, 10% of Africa’s current import value stems from risky products. These products are mainly machines and electronics, are intermediate in nature, and originate from Asia, specifically China. Risky imported products have a lower import survival rate than non-risky products, and most industries that rely on them are in the transport and construction sectors. The country-level analysis (five large and five small import countries across sub-regions) reveals that machines and electronics dominate the import volumes and values of their risky import products, among other results. Multilateral organizations and African countries can consider developing a common definition and list of products deemed as potentially risky imports whose trade performance can be tracked regularly. Strengthening global value chains should also be prioritized to reduce Africa’s vulnerability to potentially risky imports. JEL Codes: F10, F13, F14, F17