The Combined Effects of Inter-Basin Water Transfer and Land Use Change on Water Supply-Demand Risk

Abstract

Abstract Water yield service is a critical component of ecosystem services, Assessing the associated risks with its supply and demand is a current research focus. However, limited studies have investigated the influence of multiple factors on the risk of water yield service. This study proposes an evaluation framework for the supply and demand risk of water yield service considering the combined effects of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) and land use/cover change (LUCC). This study takes the Fen River Basin as an example to reveal the spatial heterogeneity of the risk under multiple influencing factors. Results show that by 2030, the demand for water yield service in the Fen River Basin will increase significantly due to the occupation of farmland by artificial land. Without considering IBWT, by 2030, the artificial land area is mostly in a state of level III and level II extremely endangered in terms of water supply and demand risk. Considering IBWT, by 2030, the artificial land will be transformed into a level IV danger state, and a large number of dispersed areas of level IV danger in the plain region will be transformed into a level V shortage of supply state. Overall, the water supply and demand risk show a downward trend. The results of the geodetector analysis shows that under the influence of IBWT, the explanatory power of influencing factors such as LUCC for the risk have been significantly improved.