Nomogram based on immune-inflammatory indicators and age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index score to predict prognosis of postoperative parotid gland carcinoma patients

Abstract

Abstract Background Parotid gland carcinoma (PGC) is a rare malignant tumor. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of immune-inflammatory-nutrition indicators and age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index score (ACCI) of PGC and develop the nomogram model for predicting prognosis. Method All patients diagnosed with PGC in two tertiary hospitals, treated with surgical resection, from March 2012 to June 2018 (n = 344) were obtained. Potential prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The nomogram model was established based on these identified independent prognostic factors. The performance of the developed prognostic model was estimated by related indexes and plots. Result The study population consisted of 344 patients with PGC who underwent surgical resection, 285 patients without smoking (82.8%), and 225 patients (65.4%) with mucoepidermoid carcinoma, with a median age of 50.0 years. American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage (p < 0.001), pathology (p = 0.019), tumor location (p < 0.001), extranodal extension (ENE) (p < 0.001), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) (p = 0.004), prognostic nutrition index (PNI) (p = 0.003), ACCI (p < 0.001), and Glasgow prognostic Score (GPS) (p = 0.001) were independent indicators for disease free survival (DFS). Additionally, the independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) including AJCC stage (p = 0.015), pathology (p = 0.004), tumor location (p < 0.001), perineural invasion (p = 0.009), ENE (p < 0.001), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) (p = 0.001), PNI (p = 0.001), ACCI (p = 0.003), and GPS (p = 0.033). The nomogram models for predicting DFS and OS in PGC patients were generated based on these independent risk factors. All nomogram models show good discriminative capability with area under curves (AUCs) over 0.8 (DFS 0.802, and OS 0.825, respectively). Decision curve analysis (DCA), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification index (NRI) show good clinical net benefit of the two nomograms in both training and validation cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses showed superior discrimination of DFS and OS in the new risk stratification system compared with the AJCC stage system. Finally, postoperative patients with PGC who underwent adjuvant radiotherapy had a better prognosis in the high-, and medium-risk subgroups (p < 0.05), but not for the low-risk subgroup. Conclusion The immune-inflammatory-nutrition indicators and ACCI played an important role in both DFS and OS of PGC patients. Adjuvant radiotherapy had no benefit in the low-risk subgroup for PGC patients who underwent surgical resection. The newly established nomogram models perform well and can provide an individualized prognostic reference, which may be helpful for patients and surgeons in proper follow-up strategies.