Trends and Variability in Precipitation Across Turkey: A Multi-Method Statistical Analysis

Abstract

Abstract Analyzing trends in precipitation data is crucial for understanding the effects of climate change and making informed decisions about water management and crop patterns. The objective of the presented study was to investigate precipitation trends, analyze temporal and spatial variations, and identify potential change points in Turkey throughout the period from 1980 to 2019. Precipitation data were analyzed for both regional and 81 meteorological stations in Turkey on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Spearman rank correlation and Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and Sen's slope test to estimate the magnitude of change throughout the entire time series. The average precipitation amount of Turkey was determined 639.2 mm between 1980–2019 years. While Central Anatolian and Eastern Anatolian regions had below 639.2 mm, other regions were above. The range of seasonal precipitation values were found for winter 128.7-320.8 mm, 108.9–260.0 mm for spring, 43.9-109.3 mm for summer and 79.7-238.4 mm for autumn. The analysis of the data revealed no significant increase or decrease in annual values on a regional basis, with the greatest change on a seasonal basis being observed in the winter. The 40-yr trends of annual precipitation data belonging to 81 stations were decreasing in 23 provinces and increasing in 58 provinces, and 11 of them (14% of the total) were found to be statistically significant. Moreover, November was found to be a month of particular significance in terms of precipitation changes across the country, with a decrease observed in 80 out of 81 provinces. Spatial distribution analysis showed that the magnitude of variation in precipitation decreased as one moved from the southern to the northern regions of the country.