Risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on international flights, a retrospective cohort study using national surveillance data in England

Abstract

Abstract Background It is not yet fully understood to what extent in-flight transmission contributed to the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aimed to determine the occurrence and extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in-flight and assess factors associated with transmission risk to inform future control strategies. Methods Retrospective cohort study using data obtained from contact tracing of international flights arriving in England between 02/08/2021–15/10/2021. Transmission risk was estimated by calculating the secondary attack rate (SAR). Univariable and multivariable analyses of the SAR by specific risk factors was undertaken, including: number of in-flight index cases; number of symptomatic index cases; contact vaccination status; flight duration; proximity to the index case(s); contact age. Results 11,307 index cases linked to 667,849 contacts with 5,289 secondary cases reported. In-flight SAR was 0.79% (95% CI: 0.77–0.81). Increasing numbers of symptomatic cases (when > 4 index cases compared to one index case aOR 1.85; 95% CI: 1.40–2.44) and seating proximity to an index case (within compared to outside of two rows OR 4.34; 95% CI: 3.69–5.11) were associated with increased risk of secondary cases. Full vaccination history was protective (aOR 0.52; 95% CI: 0.47–0.57). Conclusions This study confirms that in-flight transmission of SARS-CoV-2 occurred. There are factors associated with increased risk of infection. Contact tracing identified exposed persons who subsequently developed infection. A targeted approach to contact tracing passengers with the highest exposure risk could be an effective use of limited public health resources.