Staying on the current niche: Consensus model reveals the habitat loss of a critically endangered dragonfly Libellula angelina under climate changes

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is expected to exert a large impact on the spatial distribution of insects, yet limited analyses are available for assessing the influences of climate change on the distribution of Libellula angelina (Odonata: Libellulidae), which hindered the development of conservation strategies for this critically threatened dragonfly species. Here, a consensus model (BIOCLIM, GAM, MaxEnt and Random Forest) and niche analysis approach were applied to predict the dynamic change of potential distribution areas and ecological niche for L. angelina under future climate change. Meanwhile, the important environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of L. angelina were identified. The results demonstrated that the potential distribution pattern and ecological niche of L. angelina will not shift significantly in face of future climate change, but its highly suitable area in southern Beijing (China), the western and southern South Korea, and the southern Honshu Island (Japan) will decrease constantly. Further analyses indicated that the human influence index (32.3% of variation) is the second highest factor in predicting the potential distribution of L. angelina, following the precipitation of warmest quarter (42.6% of variation). Based on the obtained results, we suggest that extensive cooperation among the countries (China, South Korea and Japan) be advocated to formulate the international conservation strategies, especially more attention and conservation efforts should be paid in those high-suitability areas of L. angelina to gain better protection efficiency, and proper artificial ecological restoration measures should also be exerted. Implication for insect conservation: Our results show that although the critically endangered dragonfly L. angelina will still stay the current niche under climate change, its suitable area (especially highly suitable area) will decrease significantly. Therefore, we suggest that more attention and conservation efforts should be implemented in those high-suitability areas to reduce the extinction risk of L. angelina.