Integration of activity-based risk factors in PERT scheduling: case study of Indian metro tunnel projects

Abstract

Abstract In construction sector, tunneling is a costly and risky affair. The time and cost involved in tunnel construction is very high. Hence, it is necessary to use more comprehensive method like Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) while preparing schedule of tunnel construction projects. As PERT considers three different time durations, the reliability of the schedule prepared at planning stage of the project gets enhanced significantly. However, the schedule preparation of tunneling projects still relies mainly on the optimistic time. In this work the author attempts to prepare a PERT schedule for metro tunnel projects by integrating activity-wise risk factors. Initially, the critical risk factors are taken from previous literature and further these are mapped with tunnel construction activities. The list of construction activities along with optimistic schedule and respective activity-wise risk factor list is then supplied to tunnel experts for capturing their opinion on pessimistic and most likely time values. Finally, a comparative analysis is carried out by estimating project cost and developing a relation between the different times and costs associated with metro tunnel projects. The intent of this paper is to integrate the activity-wise risk factors in project scheduling to reduce delays and subsequent cost escalations. Integrating risk factors into PERT scheduling will improve risk management, enhance decision-making and enable realistic project planning. This will significantly improve project success rate. By considering risks in the scheduling process, project managers can effectively manage uncertainties and minimize their impact on project outcomes.