Projected wind and waves around the Cuban archipelago using a multimodel ensemble

Abstract

Abstract A statistical downscaling of wind and wave regimes is presented. The study is around the Cuban archipelago for the mid-term (2031–2060) and the long-term (2061–2090) with respect to the historical period 1976–2005. A multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios is used. Projections of the wind and wave regimes are projected through the BIAS correction (delta and empirical quantile mapping), and multiple regression with a determination coefficient of 88.3%, a residual standard deviation of 0.11, and a square mean error of 0.29. The results obtained through the statistical downscaling do not show significant differences against previous results using dynamic downscaling over the region. According to the statistical downscaling, the mean annual wind speed and the wave height showed significant changes in the western part of the Cuban archipelago. The extreme indicators of climate change referred to by Hsig show similarity in the representation of the future Cuban marine climate, which would have the most accentuated changes on the north coast of the central and eastern regions.