Modeling Earthquake Data Using ETAS Model to Forecast Aftershock Subsequences Applying Different Parameterizations in Kermanshah Region, Iran

Abstract

Abstract In this study, the ETAS model was used to identify the sequence of aftershocks in Kermanshah, west of Iran. We appraise the model's ability to track aftershock sequences based on two main shocks from 2017 and 2018. This evaluation shall cover progress toward the objectives set out in the ETAS model and done focusing on the two main shocks of 2017 and 2018, as well as recommendations for the Seismic maps. The experiments were conducted to analyze the possibility of comparing model results and providing more accurate estimates of aftershock sequences for the Kermanshah region in four selected windows over time. The setting quality of the four windows that were investigated, in this study, by the model theory has been selected in a way to allow the comparison of the formation of aftershock sequences after the main shocks, especially the 2017 earthquakes and 2018 in the Kermanshah region. The results of this research emphasize the importance of recording earthquake events in the approximation of subsequent events and show that the model has a reliable skill in recognizing aftershock sequences, even if the number of main shocks is small. Also, choosing the period for research should be such that it does not interrupt the sequence of aftershocks.