Heatwave Magnitude Impact and Projected Changes Over Himachal Pradesh: Cmip 6 Projections

Abstract

Abstract Being a hilly state Himachal Pradesh, heatwave incidents are not associated with each other, yet recent news and incidents are concerning. Numerous studies have shown that climate change has an extremely unexpected effect on the planet, causing natural disasters such as heatwaves and floods to become more intense everywhere. With the help of the daily maximum temperature dataset from 13 General Circular Models (GCMs) of CMIP-6 projection from to 2020–2100 of four SSPs (126, 245, 370, and 585) scenarios, this study is an attempt to predict the impact of climate change on Himachal Pradesh at the district level in terms of heatwaves, comparing their intensity and frequency over the entire area. This research aids in determining the most vulnerable regions in Himachal Pradesh as well as the ways in which variations in altitude and varying degrees of climate change affect heatwave patterns, trends, and intensity. These findings imply that as altitude rises, so does the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, which in turn increase with the effects of climate change.