Role of the revised Baux score in predicting mortality among burn patients in an African low income country; a multicenter prospective cohort

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Burn injury is a major cause of mortality. Majority of the burns occur in low and middle income countries like Uganda. Uganda has limited burn centres and medical resources making a predictor of mortality necessary in allocation of the limited resources. Though the revised Baux (r-Baux) score has been validated and used in many high income countries, no study has assessed the role of r-Baux score in an African low income country; the reason this study was done. Methods This was a prospective multicentre cohort that enrolled 101 burns patients with moderate and severe burns admitted in 3 tertiary hospitals in western Uganda. Follow up was done until discharge, documenting mortality. A receiver operator characteristic curve was used to determine the role of r-Baux score in predicting mortality. Results This study included 101 patients, with a mean age of 21.3 (SD = 16.8) years. The majority of the participants were male (69.3%). The area under the curved for r-Baux score at predicting mortality was 0.943 (p < 0.001). The most appropriate cut off was determined to be 74.5. At this cut off, r-Baux score predicted mortality with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 83.5%. For every one unit increase in r-Baux score, the odds of mortality increased by 1.1 times (p = 0.001) while controlling for severity. Conclusion The r-Baux score was found to be excellent at predicting mortality among burn patients in Uganda and therefore should be done for all patients at admission, in order to predict mortality and do proper planning.