Spatiotemporal spread pattern of the COVID-19 cases in China

Abstract

Abstract COVID-19 is currently spreading widely around the world, causing huge threats on public safety and global society. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal spread pattern of the COVID-19 in China, reveals China’s epicenters of the epidemic through spatial clustering, and delineates the substantial effect of distance to Wuhan on the COVID-19 spread. The results show that the daily new COVID-19 cases mostly occurred in and around Wuhan before March 6, and then moved to the Grand Bay Area (Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau). The total COVID-19 cases in China were mainly distributed in the east of the Huhuanyong Line, where the epicenters account for more than 60% of the country’s total on 24 January and 7 February, half on 31 January, and more than 70% from 14 February. The total cases finally stabilized around 84,000, and the inflection point for Wuhan was on 14 February, one week later than those of Hubei (outside Wuhan) and China (outside Hubei). The generalized additive model-based analysis shows that population density and distance to provincial cities significantly associated with the total number of the cases, while distances to prefecture cities and inter-city traffic stations, and population inflow from Wuhan after 24 January, had no strong relationships with the total number of cases. The results and findings should provide valuable insights for understanding the changes in the COVID-19 transmission and controlling the global COVID-19 spread.