Impact of Climate Variability on Rice Productivity in Pakistan

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is currently the most significant concern on the planet. This study examined the impacts of climate change on rice yield across rice growing agro-ecological zones in four districts (Swat from zone A, Mansehra from zone B, Mardan from zone C, and D.I. Khan from zone D) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan based on the availability of data regarding rice production and meteorological variables. This study covered 33 years (1986–2018) data. Panel unit root tests of LLC and IPS suggested that all variable included in the model were stationary. Durbin Wu Hausman test favored fixed effect model as compared to random effect model. Diagnosis of fixed effect model results showed that it was plagued with problems of cross-sectional dependency, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. Final findings were estimated using Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) model to overcome the problems in fixed effect model. Results revealed that area under crop has a positive and significant effect on rice yield. Estimated critical temperature for maximum yield of rice was 34.48 ºC in sowing stages, 35.85 ºC in vegetative stages, and 29.43 ºC in maturity stages and Rainfall in vegetative stages was 152 mm. It is concluded that rice yield showed a decline when temperature and rainfall exceed the critical levels. Government needs to use afforestation and other appropriate measures to keep the temperature from rising in these three zones. Extension department needs to provide information to rice growers for adaptation strategies to climate change.