Potential distribution of Batocera horsfieldi (Hope) in Sichuan based on species distribution models

Abstract

Abstract Batocera horsfieldi (Hope) is a highly destructive pest in the forestry sector, causing significant damage to forests in Sichuan. This study aimed to assess the potential distribution of B. horsfieldi(Hope) in Sichuan under different CO2 emission scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs245, SSPs370, SSPs585) from 2021 to 2100, using field surveys and climate data. Nine key environmental variables that strongly influenced the distribution of B. horsfieldi (Hope) were identified based on their high contribution and low correlation coefficients. The most suitable model, determined by the highest AUC value, was used to predict the suitable areas for B. horsfieldi (Hope) in Sichuan. The total suitable area was calculated, and the offset angle and distance were marked. The results indicated that under the projected climatic conditions from 2021 to 2100, the nine critical environmental variables were Alt (450m-850m), Slope (40–60°), Prec06 (180mm-200mm), Prec07 (250mm-300mm), Bioc07 (25–28), Tmax01 (11–14°C), Tmax02 (12–15°C), Bioc17 (55mm-62mm), and Ve (600–800). Among the three models compared(BIOCLIM, GARP, MaxEnt), MaxEnt exhibited the highest AUC value (0.845) and the best accuracy. The potential suitable areas for B. horsfieldi (Hope) in Sichuan were classified into four categories: unsuitable area (316,731.36km2 and 65.17%), low suitable area (86,890.74km2 and 17.88%), medium suitable area (56,362km2 and 11.6%), and high suitable area. The high suitable areas were mainly concentrated in Lezhi and Yanjiang, with a general trend of north to south distribution. The SSPs126 scenario (2061–2080) had the largest area of high suitability, while the 2081-2100-SSPs585 scenario had the lowest latitudinal extent.