Predicting future soil carbon dynamics under global change scenarios from a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Soil carbon cycling processes in terrestrial ecosystems are significantly influenced by global changes, and soil microorganisms play a crucial role in soil organic carbon (SOC) and its feedbacks to climate change. Methods To investigate the potential future changes in soil carbon dynamics under different scenarios in the Ziwuling Forest region, we collected soil data through field observation experiments at a long-term fixed observation sample site. By utilizing a microbial ecological model (MEND), we predicted the future dynamics of soil carbon under different scenarios in the area. Results We found that under the RCP2.6 scenario, SOC showed a rapid increase. By 2100, the SOC values in topsoil are projected to be higher than whole soil SOC values for the three RCP scenarios. SOC under the RCP2.6 scenario will be significantly higher than those under the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario. Furthermore, the positive correlation between total litter carbon (LC) and SOC under the RCP2.6 scenario highlights the potential role of total litter carbon in driving SOC dynamics. We also found that the low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario favors the accumulation of SOC in the study area, while the high GHG emission scenario leads to greater soil carbon loss. Conclusions Our results underscore the importance of considering the impact of climate change(especially global warming)on soil ecosystems in the future. Protecting the soil ecosystem of the Loess Plateau is critical for maintaining soil carbon sinks, preventing soil erosion, and improving and regulating the surrounding environmental climate.