Trends of Tropical Cyclone Parameters

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones are seasonal phenomena that have to be calculated annually. The annual sea temperature rise in the tropics is small, of the order of 0.0018°C or less, and detecting mathematically significant trends of tropical cyclone parameters using Carnot cycle representation does not appear to be practically possible. The size of tropical cyclones is massive, and minute calculation errors spread large enough to overshadow the trends of the parameters. However, most of tropical cyclone structure may be determined by equations of classical mechanics, which are well defined and exact. This may reduce the calculation errors and mathematically significant and valid trends of tropical cyclone parameters determined. Accordingly, for equal temperature difference between sea water and air, the ocean heat flux required for tropical cyclone genesis decreases with latitude. Because sea temperature rise increases with latitude, tropical cyclones have been shifting their nascent locations farther away from the equator. Therefore, for the same annual energy available to tropical cyclones, the number of tropical cyclones increases with time. The increase is nearly equal to 4.08% ±0.76% per decade. Tropical cyclone intensity does not appear to be impacted by surface warming. The methodology provided may be used to assess trends of virtually all tropical cyclone parameters.