Identifying high snakebite risk area under climate change: Implications for community education and antivenom distribution

Abstract

Abstract Snakebite is a global health problem and yearly snakebites have been estimated up to 5 million leading to about 100,000 deaths each year. While those numbers are showing that snakebite is one of the largest risks from wildlife, little is known about venomous snake distribution, spatial variation in snakebite risk, potential changes in snakebite risk pattern due to climate change, and vulnerable human population. As a consequence, management and prevention of snakebite is hampered by this lack of information. Previous studies suggest that habitat suitability models are effective tools in predicting snakebite risk areas under current and future climate and identifying vulnerable human population. Here we used an ensemble approach of five different habitat suitability modeling algorithms for 10 medically important venomous snakes to quantify snakebite risk pattern, map snakebite hotspots, calculate community composition changes and changes in vulnerability to snakebite in Iran under current and future climate (years 2041–2070 and 2071–2100). We identified areas with high snakebite risk in Iran and showed that snakebite risk will increase in some parts of the country. We also found mountainous areas (Zagros, Alborz, Kopet-Dagh mountains) will experience highest changes in species composition. We underline that in order to improve snakebite management, areas which were identified with high snakebite risk in Iran need to be prioritized for the distribution of antivenom medication and awareness rising programs among vulnerable human population.