Climate Change projections- Impacts and Adaptations on Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in West Bengal

Abstract

Abstract Simulation models are useful tools to evaluate the effects of future climatic scenarios on the potential productivity of potato. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change using WOFOST and InfoCrop for representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 6.0) and for future climate scenarios (2030, 2050, and 2080): also to establish the adaptation strategies, either by selecting suitable cultivar or by shifting date of planting or with proper irrigation and nitrogen management practices to compensate yield losses. Potato cultivars belonging to late (Kufri Badshah), medium (Kufri Jyoti), and early (Kufri Pukhraj) maturity cultivars were selected. Based on simulation results, it has been predicted that under RCP 4.5, the cumulative concentration of CO2 is likely to increase, leading to a potential productivity boost of 1.26%, 1.31%, and 1.03% for Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti, and Kufri Pukhraj potato varieties respectively by the year 2030. However, in 2050, a 0.20% and 0.02% increase is expected in Kufri Badshah and Kufri Jyoti, whereas, a decline (0.42%) is projected for Kufri Pukhraj. For 2080, a decline in potential productivity is anticipated for Kufri Badshah (-2.53%), Kufri Jyoti (-2.90%), and Kufri Pukhraj (-3.77%). However, the corresponding increase in temperature is likely to reduce the mean productivity by 5.7, 6.2, and 6.2% in 2030; 10.6, 11.6, and 11.8% in 2050 and 15.9, 17.2, and 17.9% in 2080, for Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti, and Kufri Pukhraj, respectively. However, when the combined influence of temperature and CO2 were considered, these losses can be compensated to some extent for 2030 (1.4, 1.4, and 1.1%), 2050 (0.3, 0.1, and − 0.4%) and 2080 (-2.4, -2.8 and − 3.7%) for Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti, and Kufri Pukhraj, respectively. Alike, for RCP 6.0, elevated concentration of CO2 is likely to increase the mean productivity in 2030 (7.1%), 2050 by 11.6% in, and by 21.1% in 2080. However, the elevated temperature is predicted to decrease the potential productivity in 2030 (-2.7%), 2050 (-6.3%), and 2080 (-17.8%). Although, when the combined effect of temperature and CO2 is considered, the potential productivity of potato is not much affected (4.2% in 2030, 4.6% in 2050, and by 1.0% in 2080). Further, by following adaptation strategies i.e shifting the date of planting and by selecting suitable cultivars productivity can be enhanced. In adaptation, among eleven varieties, Kufri Khyati emerged to be least affected and Kufri Kanchan was affected most by the effect of climate change for future climatic scenarios (2030, 2050, and 2080) for both RCPs (4.5 & 6.0). Further, with proper irrigation and nitrogen management practices, yield can also be increased.