Costs of transitioning to net-zero emissions under future climates

Abstract

Abstract Land managers are challenged with balancing priorities for agri-food production, greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement, natural conservation, social and economic license to operate. We co-designed pathways for transitioning farming systems to net-zero emissions under future climates. Few interventions enhanced productivity and profitability while also reducing GHG emissions. Seaweed (Asparagopsis) feed supplement and planting trees enabled the greatest mitigation (67–95%), while enterprise diversification (installation of wind turbines) and improved feed-conversion efficiency (FCE) were most conducive to improved profitability (17–39%). Mitigation efficacy was hampered by adoptability. Serendiptiously, the least socially acceptable option – business as usual and purchasing carbon credits to offset emissions – were also the most costly options. In contrast, stacking synergistic interventions enabling enteric methane mitigation, improved FCE and carbon removals entirely negated net emissions in a profitable way. We conclude that costs of transitioning to net-zero vary widely (-64% to + 30%), depending on whether interventions are stacked and/or elicit productivity co-benefits.