Abstract
Early assessment and prevention of postoperative urinary retention (POUR) represent significant challenges in clinical nursing for elderly women. This study aims to identify risk factors for POUR in elderly female patients with hip fractures and to develop predictive models. A cross-sectional correlational study was conducted on 371 elderly female patients with hip fractures admitted to the Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University between June 2019 and December 2022. Patients were randomly allocated into training and validation cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. Risk prediction models were developed using logistic regression analysis, a nomogram model, and an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. In the modeling group, POUR was observed in 62 out of 204 cases (30.4%). Logistic regression analysis indicated that age (P = 0.07, OR = 1.07, 95% CI [1.02–1.13]), comorbidity with diabetes (P = 0.015, OR = 2.41, 95% CI [1.19–4.89]), hypokalemia (P = 0.0015, OR = 3.43, 95% CI [1.27–9.25]), and postoperative bladder pressure (P = 0.0281, OR = 0.95, 95% CI [0.91–1.00]) were significant predictors of POUR in elderly female patients. These models effectively predict the occurrence of POUR in elderly women with hip fractures.