Nomograms for the Prognosis Prediction Model of Early-stage Triple- negative Breast Cancer - Based on SEER Database

Author:

Wang Yaxue1,Li Fengyan1

Affiliation:

1. Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center

Abstract

Abstract

Purpose Triple-negative breast cancer(TNBC) is highly aggressive and insensitive to hormone therapy. As a result, the treatment and prognosis of TNBC have received widespread attention. The purpose of this study was to summarize the prognosis of early-stage TNBC, construct nomograms to accurately predict patient survival and advanced treatment model. Methods The modeling group consisted of early-stage TNBC patients in the SEER database. Prognostic factors were examined using Cox regression, and the nomograms were created by R(4.3.2) software. Patients with the same screening conditions were collected from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center to form the validating group, and validation were performed using the Concordance index, Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves. Results There were 14,389 patients in the modeling group and 1,146 patients in the validating group. Age and 7 other factors in the modeling group were independent predictors (P<0.05), which were used to build nomograms. The Concordance indices for disease-free survival in the modeling and validating groups were 0.884 (95% confidence interval(CI), 0.876-0.892) and 0.686 (95% CI, 0.653-0.719). The Concordance indices for overall survival were 0.873 (95% CI, 0.863-0.883) and 0.741 (95% CI,0.702-0.780), respectively.Most of the value of the Area under the curve were above 0.7. All calibration curves were close to the 45° reference line. Conclusions Age, TNM stage, histologic grading, plastic surgery, and radiotherapy were independent predictors of prognosis in patients with early TNBC. The nomograms constructed in this study had good predictive value, yet the accuracy still needs to be verified by large-sample multicenter studies.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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