Implication of Climate Change on Crop Water Requirement in the Semi-Arid Region of Western Maharashtra, India

Abstract

Abstract Climate change and human activities have massively impacted the hydrological cycle. Thus, it is of the greatest concern to examine the effect of climate change on water management, especially at the regional level, to understand possible future shifts in water supply and water-related crises and support regional water management. Fortunately, there is a high degree of ambiguity in determining the effect of climate change on water requirements. In this paper, the Statistical DownScaling (SDSM) model is applied to simulate the potential impact of climate on crop water requirements (CWR) by downscaling ET0 in the region of Western Maharashtra, India, for the future periods, viz., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, across three meteorological stations (Pune, Rahuri, and Solapur). Four crops, i.e., cotton, soybean, onion, and sugarcane, were selected during the analysis. The Penman-Monteith equation calculates reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0). Further, in conjunction with the crop coefficient (Kc) equation, it calculates crop evapotranspiration (ETc)/CWR. The predictor variables were extracted from the NCEP reanalysis dataset for 1961–2000 and the HadCM3 for 1961–2099 under the H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios. The results indicated by SDSM profound good applicability in downscaling due to satisfactory performance during calibration and validation for all three stations. The projected ET0 indicated an increase in mean annual ET0 compared to the present condition during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s. The ET0 would increase for all months (in summer, winter, and pre-monsoon seasons) and decrease from June to September (monsoon season). The estimated future CWR shows variation in the range for cotton (-0.97 to 2.48%), soybean (-2.09 to 1.63%), onion (0.49 to 4.62%), and sugarcane (0.05 to 2.86%).