Affiliation:
1. City University of New York
Abstract
Abstract
One of the lingering questions regarding the 2016 presidential election is ‘would things have been different, had Hilary Clinton visited Wisconsin?’ We tackle this question with a nonparametric identification strategy based on directed acyclic graph (DAG) and a Bayesian multilevel spatial statistical model to identify and estimate the campaign visit effect at the county-level. Our results suggest that the Wisconsin narrative misses the most important aspects of the 2016 election. In all counties in the 48 contiguous states, a Trump visit increases the support for Clinton. In half of the counties, a Clinton visit increases the support for Trump.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
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