Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in a highly anthropized area of Mexico

Abstract

AbstractAnthropogenic changes, such as land use and climate change, are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for reptiles, the second most endangered vertebrate class worldwide. Species distribution modelling was applied to assess how expected scenarios of future climate and land cover change might influence the geographic distribution and habitat connectivity of threeConopsisearthsnakes endemic to Mexico:Conopsis biserialis(Taylor and Smith, 1942),Conopsis lineata(Kennicott, 1859), andConopsis nasus(Günther, 1858). In order to do this, two climate models were used, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP), with the Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 85 and the Maxent modelling method in ENMeval. The most important environmental variables affecting the distribution of the target species, as well as the environmental niche overlap between them, were also determined.C. biserialis, C. lineata, andC. nasuswere found to be restricted by maximum and minimum temperatures as they are adapted to high elevations and temperate semi-cold climates; therefore, climate was a main determining factor for species distribution. As expected, allConopsisspecies were predicted to face a reduction in their potential distribution withC. lineatapossibly losing approximately 48.5% andC. biserialislosing 28.7%. However, the models were inconsistent in determining which species would suffer the biggest reduction in distribution in the future. Likewise, a reduction in connectivity was found for the three species ofConopsis, while the Sierra de las Cruces and Corredor Biológico Chichinautzin were determined as very important areas in terms of connectivity. Unfortunately, great losses ofAbiesandPinusforests occurred in these areas between 2011 and 2014, along with an increase in the agricultural activity that compromises the populations of these species when intensively managed. Most of the potential distribution of these species are found in close proximity to agriculture and outside of protected areas, which is why it is extremely important to create protected areas for reptile species that live in these parts of central Mexico.