Quantifying the hazard from volcanic sulphur dioxide to aircraft occupants

Abstract

Abstract Volcanic eruptions can emit large quantities of sulphur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere, which can be harmful to people and the environment. Aircraft encounters with a volcanic SO2 cloud could represent a health hazard to crew and passengers onboard, depending on the dose of SO2 encountered. The recommended SO2 concentration threshold set by the World Health Organisation (WHO) is 500 µg/m3 over 10 minutes. In this study we have assessed concentration levels of volcanic SO2 in the atmosphere following eight historic eruptions and use dispersion model simulations to calculate when and where the WHO threshold is exceeded. The time and area of exceedance varies and depends on the eruption characteristics: the amount, duration and height of the SO2 release. The WHO threshold is exceeded for all historic eruptions considered. In several cases, the area delineated by the WHO threshold, that is the SO2 hazard, can be considerably larger than the volcanic ash hazard area for the same eruption. SO2 hazard areas also often extend over a longer period of time compared to the equivalent ash advisories. For example, following the 2019 eruption of Raikoke, the SO2 hazard area reached up to 1.7 million km2 and the WHO concentration value was exceeded for about two weeks, while volcanic ash was considered hazardous to aviation for about five days. These results will help the aviation industry to better understand the potential risks to their passengers and crew from volcanic SO2, and aid in defining concentration thresholds for any potential volcanic SO2 forecasts for aviation.