Application of Time Series Analysis to Vendor Selection Problem: A Problem of Multi-Objective Decision Making

Abstract

Abstract The attainment of a competitive advantage can be facilitated by the presence of a vendor who is both effective and efficient. The process of selecting a vendor is a complex decision-making task that entails consideration of multiple quantitative and qualitative factors. The objective of this study is to minimise the net ordering cost, transportation cost, and late deliveries. When examining the various circumstances of existence, it is impossible to make anticipatory prognostications. The utilisation of Interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy numbers has been employed to effectively demonstrate the presence of uncertainty in the input parameters. A precise equivalent form has been derived through the calculation of the expected value. Exponential smoothing forecasting analysis has been utilised to ascertain the precise demand for the product in order to mitigate the risk of shortages and consequent financial losses. Ultimately, an effective methodology utilising fuzzy goal programming has been employed to attain a mutually satisfactory solution. The proposed methodology has been elucidated through the addition of a numerical illustration of its underlying concepts.