Future variations of water stress over China will have impacts on the north-to-south shifts in agriculture and manufacturing sectors

Abstract

Abstract In this study, a fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution water stress prediction (FTOPWSP) index is developed to analyze spatiotemporal variations of water stress, and concomitant effects on the populace within China under climate change. The potential implications of water stress variations on the migration of the agriculture sector, manufacturing industry, and human population are further discussed. Our results show that the value of the FTOPWSP index could decrease by 7.17% from 2020 to 2099 under the representative concentration pathway 2.6-shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (RCP2.6-SSP2) scenario. Such a decrease signifies an augury of water stress in the ensuing eight decades. The primary causative factors are attributed to decreased water resources supply, such as groundwater recharge, groundwater runoff, and subsurface runoff. Moreover, future annual variations of the FTOPWSP index value are predominantly contributed by its variations during the spring and autumn seasons. The water stress in the southeastern provinces would be much lower than the northwestern ones, wherein more than 20% of the entire Chinese population would be severely impacted by water stress. More importantly, such variations of water stress could lead to the north-to-south migration of the agriculture sector, manufacturing industry, and human population.