Forecast of Electricity Production from Coal and Renewable Sources in Major European Economies

Abstract

Abstract Purpose – The importance of electricity in the economic development of nations is undeniable. Although coal and renewable sources are significant contributors to electricity production in major world economies, a new study seeks to predict the future production of electricity from these sources in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France. Design/methodology/approach – Two optimized grey forecasting models – DGM (1,1,α) and EGM (1,1,θ,α) – are used to forecast electricity production. Also, the accuracy of the forecasts is measured through the Javed-Cudjoe scale of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Findings – The electricity production from coal is on the decline, while renewable energy production is increasing in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France. The accuracy of the forecasts for these trends, as generated by two grey models, surpasses that of the Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS). Originality/value – For the first time, optimized even and discrete grey forecasting models have been utilized to make predictions about electricity production in the three largest economies in Europe.