Modelling Clean Energy Transition Pathways for India’s Power Sector Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Abstract

Abstract India, an economic powerhouse with a rapidly increasing population and considerable global influence, is uniquely positioned to shape how developing nations achieve a clean energy transition. With ambitious targets set at COP-26, a clear route to achieving this must be established. Specifically, India faces the critical challenge of shifting away from coal and increasing its share of renewable energy. Of the five targets set at COP-26, this study has focussed on: 1) Reaching 500 GW Non-fossil energy capacity by 2030 (focussed on exceeding this target by 50GW) 2) Reducing total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes, and 3) Achieving net zero by 2070. However, considering India’s social and economic dependency on the coal industry, along with the immense pressure from the significant, growing population, how these targets can be achieved must be scrutinised to form a clear roadmap for success. Energy System Modelling (ESM), specifically OSeMOSYS, have provided a valuable mechanism for formulating evidence-based policy recommendations. This study developed a “starter data kit” for India, allowing for the modelling of six scenarios based on the three aforementioned COP-26 targets. The modelled scenarios are as follows: a Low Cost (LC) scenario; a Fossil Future (FF) scenario, where no new investment is made in renewable energy or efficiency after 2021; a scenario where 550GW of solar/wind/hydropower is integrated into the system by 2030 (RE); Net Zero by 2070 (NZ); Net Zero by 2070, with 550 GW of renewables and a 1 billion tonne reduction in carbon emissions (NZ + RE - Emissions); and a scenario with 550 GW of renewables combined with the 1 billion tonne CO2 reduction (RE - Emissions). The results of this modelling, along with a comprehensive literature review, found that to achieve all three targets a shift in baseload energy is required, suggesting nuclear and biomass as suitable sources. Despite the high capital cost of nuclear, its longevity and low running costs counter this. It was also determined that securing 550 GW of renewable energy by 2030 is an important starting point for renewable energy penetration. However, increased system dependence on renewables requires a congruent scale-up of energy storage capabilities to address system instability, specifically to ~160 GWh of capacity. Finally, deep penetration of energy efficiency (EE) is integral to success, which should be promoted with improved fiscal and financial incentives, along with education campaigns. To achieve its COP-26 climate targets, India should consider the implementation of the above recommendations.