A common factor underlying confirmation bias in hypothesis testing tasks

Author:

Berthet Vincent1,Teovanović Predrag2,de Gardelle Vincent3

Affiliation:

1. University of Lorraine

2. University of Belgrade

3. French National Centre for Scientific Research

Abstract

Abstract

When they are asked to test a given hypothesis, individuals tend to be biased towards confirming evidence. This phenomenon has been documented on different cognitive components: information search, weighing of evidence, and memory recall. However, the interpretation of these observations has been debated, and it remains unclear whether they truly reflect a confirmation bias (as opposed to e.g., a bias towards positive information). In the present study we aimed at evaluating whether these biases might be subtended by a common factor. We adapted three classic experimental paradigms on hypothesis testing (Wason selection task, 2-4-6 task, and interviewee task) and examined the relation between these biases using an individual differences approach. Participants (N = 200) completed a total of nine behavioral tasks, in which each component of confirmation bias was measured in each of the three experimental paradigms. Correlations and factor analyses within a multitrait–multimethod framework indicated greater convergence of bias scores within each component across paradigms, than within experimental paradigms. This suggests that a common factor underlies the different measurements of confirmation bias across experimental paradigms, at least to some extent. In these paradigms, thus, biases towards confirming evidence may truly reflect a confirmation bias.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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