Travelling and COVID-19: A Mathematical Model

Abstract

Abstract A non-linear mathematical model is proposed to study the impacts of travelling in human-human transmission of COVID- 19.Two different regions are considered and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 dissemination in two regions caused by travelling from one region to other and infection during travel are discussed.Besides contacts between susceptible and infected population of a region off the travel,transmission of disease due to contacts during travel is also considered.The proposed model is analysed using stability theory of ordinary differential equation and feasibility of qualitative results ia checked through numerical simulations.From obtained results,it is shown that travelling and population dispersal can aggravate disease spreading in each region.It is also inferred that rate of travelling and rate of contacts during travel and off the travel can ease the disease to take endemic form and for high rates,it may become pandemic. Further numerical calculations are performed and critical limits of the major factors enhancing spreading of disease.It is revealed that when the rates goes higher than their corresponding critical limits,disease may not be controlled due to high infection.It is also imparted that when the rates are high, disease can only be controlled with high rate of quarantine.Also approximate time or stability is evaluated for maximum as well as minimum rates of key parameters.The results obtained by analyzing the model recommends that for early stability of endemic situation, key factors must be kept as minimum as possible within estimated limits and quarantining infected class to control the transmission of disease.