Trends and projections of inflammatory bowel disease at the global and national levels, 1990–2050: A bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

Abstract

Abstract Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. By analyzing estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and employing a Bayesian model, we predict IBD trends over 50 years. Results:In 2019, there were 404,552 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 360,521.17 to 456,478.46), with 40,998 deaths (95% UI 34,932.99 to 44,660.80) and 1,622,498.43 DALYs (95% UI 1,356,295.86 to 1,915,042.45). The global age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 4.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% UI 4.43 to 5.59), with a mortality rate of 0.54 (95% UI 0.46 to 0.59) and DALYs rate of 20.15 (95% UI 16.86 to 23.71). From 1990 to 2019, EAPC values for incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were -0.60 (95% UI -0.73 to -0.48), -0.69 (95% UI -0.81 to -0.57), and -1.04 (95% UI -1.06 to -1.01), respectively. Predictions using a Bayesian model showed lower new cases and deaths from 2020 to 2050 than reference values, with similar incidence-time curves. Conclusion: Increasing cases, deaths, and DALYs highlight the sustained burden of IBD on public health. Developed countries have stabilized or declining incidence rates but face high prevalence and societal burden. Emerging and developing countries experience rising incidence. Understanding these changes aids policymakers in effectively addressing IBD challenges in different regions and economic contexts.