The trajectories of CO2 emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks of 30 Chinese provinces

Abstract

Abstract Global greenhouse gas emissions, a major factor driving climate change, have been increasing since 19th century. STIRPAT and CEVSA models are performed to estimate Chinese provinces-level carbon emission peak and terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks, respectively. Based on the criterion of the growth characteristics and the peak time for the past 23 years, the patterns of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 30 Chinese provinces are divided into four groups: (i) one-stage increase (5 provinces); (ii) two-stage increase (10 provinces); (iii) maximum around 2013 (13 provinces), and (iv) maximum around 2017 (2 provinces). The anticipated time of peak CO2 emissions for Beijing from the third group is ~ 2025 in both business as usual and high-speed scenarios, for Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and Zhejiang province from the first and second groups are 2025 ~ 2030, and for Shaanxi province from the fourth group is before 2030, respectively. The inventory-based estimate of China’s terrestrial carbon sink is ~ 266.2 Tg C/a during the past 34 years, offsetting 18.3% of contemporary CO2 emissions. The province-level CO2 emissions, peak emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks estimates shown here significant for those concerned with carbon neutrality in China.