How to preserve narrow endemics in view of climate change? The Nuratau Mountains as the case

Abstract

Abstract Endemic species usually have higher risk of extinction than widespread species and therefore for endemics negative effects of climate change can be especially dramatic. The Nuratau Mountains, located in Uzbekistan, are rich in endemic species and are a part of the Mountains of Central Asia Global Biodiversity Hotspot and one of Key Biodiversity Areas. To understand consequences of the climate change for a group of endemic plant species found in this region we conducted species distribution modelling (SDM) and produced species maps of habitat suitability, as well as maps of predicted endemic species richness under current and expected future climatic conditions. From the obtained information we assessed i) how well the existing in the region protected area (Nuratau Nature Reserve) protects the local endemics, and ii) what should be done to preserve these species under the expected future warming. Among 27 studied species, 14 appear to be the true narrow endemics because their predicted range is mostly or totally confined to the Nuratau Mountains. The remaining species have a wide predicted range of which the Nuratau Mountains are only a small part. Majority of the Nuratau endemics will have no climatically suitable habitat under the Rcp85 scenario in the Nuratau Mountains or surrounding ranges. Only seven species will have suitable habitats within the Nuratau Mountains and only five of them will have suitable habitat within the protected territory of the Nuratau Nature Reserve. For six species there will be no suitable area in the whole study area. Surprisingly, 13 species will have a suitable habitat in the Kugitang Range where Surkhan Nature Reserve is located. We suggest as the most appropriate climate change adaptation strategy for these Nuratau endemics the artificial increasing their dispersal capacity via in situ introduction trials and the creation of new populations in Surkhan Nature Reserve.