Large-scale Natural Disaster and Rising Costs Overtime—Heterogeneous Evolvement from Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis on Tropical Cyclone Impacts in China during 2003-2018

Abstract

Abstract Researchers discovered that the direct costs associated with meteorological hazards were on the rise across the nation, but there were few investigations into the internal mechanisms. On the basis of 16 years of data from 2003 to 2018, the patterns of tropical cyclone disasters in China were analyzed using a linear regression model, innovative trend, coupling degree, and geo-science analysis. Against the backdrop of rising direct economic losses over time, it has been discovered that large-scale disasters costing more than 30 billion yuan in recent years are the primary causes of the upward trend. Although tropical cyclones have moved northward since 2011, this phenomenon cannot explain the above pattern. Furthermore, this paper conducts a spatiotemporal correlation analysis of tropical cyclones and their impacts in an effort to reveal the evolvement of losses at smaller spatial units, as opposed to previous studies that conducted relatively independent analyses of space or time. It is found that the periodicity in disaster loss variables emerges at provincial level, whereas the national aggregation omits these specifics. Given that the association between frequency and losses lessens, particularly in provinces with medium/low levels of a predetermined disaster intensity index, this paper closes with recommendations for local risk preparation.