Modeling the spatial and temporal evolution of ecosystem service values under predicted land-use change: An example from the Dianchi watershed

Abstract

Abstract In recent years, China's Yunnan Province has witnessed rapid urbanization, together with a steady advancement of economic construction in the central and western parts of the country. The Dianchi watershed is a region with the highest level of urbanization in Yunnan Province; therefore, the area is characterized by a high number of people migrating into the watershed, a huge shift in the land-use structure of the watershed, and a huge pressure on the ecosystem. This paper analyzed the land-use change patterns in the Dianchi watershed in 2000, 2010, and 2020. Second, this paper identified the driving factors and used the GeoSOS–FLUS model to simulate and forecast the land use data of the Dianchi watershed in 2030. The land use evaluation results were obtained by modifying the Xie Ecosystem Service Value Equivalent Scale (ESVES). The ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Dianchi watershed in 2030 was assessed.The results of this study show that:(1) The GeoSOS–FLUS model, which had an overall accuracy (OA) of 0.83. Moreover, a Kappa coefficient of 0.79 (greater than 0.75) indicated that the model can predict the land use situation in the study area in 2030 more accurately. (2)The prediction results indicated that in the Dianchi watershed, the construction land increased the most, and the cultivated land decreased the most. (3)The ESV assessment results revealed that the value of various ecosystem services in the Dianchi watershed increased from 2000 to 2030. However, the value of arable land and wetlands decreased from 2020 to 2030.2000,2010,2020and2030,the contribution of ecological services of watersheds was the highest, followed by the contribution of forest land, grassland, and arable land.（4）Because of the rapid increase in the living and economic standards of the public, the ESV increased the most between 2000 and 2010. This paper analyzed and predicted the land use structure of the Dianchi watershed, as well as assessed the ESVs of the watershed in the context of its socioeconomic development. The results can be used for ecological protection and rational land development in the Dianchi watershed.