China's total carbon emissions and carbon peak-related projections

Abstract

Abstract Background To cope with the problem of global warming, China has proposed the goal of achieving carbon peaking by 2030. To explore the achievability of this target, the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model is established by fully considering the effects of population, GDP per capita, energy intensity, the energy structure, water intensity, the industrial structure and other factors on carbon emissions. Result The regression results show that population, the urbanization rate, GDP per capita, the industrial structure, the energy structure, and environmental regulation all make a positive contribution to reducing carbon emissions. Especially, with other variables being constant, for every 1% increase in population, carbon emissions increase by 1.7718%. Conclusion The analysis of the model coefficients reveals that population and the industrial structure are the main influencing factors of carbon emission reduction in China. Combined with the scenario analysis method for projection, the results show that China is expected to be able to achieve the carbon peak target by 2030 under the low-carbon model. Finally, based on the scenario analysis of China's carbon emission trends, relevant policy recommendations are proposed, such as improving the quality of the population and building a green and low-carbon lifestyle; maintaining a reasonable economic growth rate; accelerating energy restructuring; and optimizing the industrial structure.