A Survival Analysis of Family Forest Owners in the USA: Estimating Life Expectancy and 5-year Survivorship

Abstract

Abstract Individuals, families, and trusts own a plurality of forest land in the United States, and the decisions made by these landowners have substantial impacts on the ecological, economic, and social benefits their lands provide. Some of the most impactful decisions include when and to whom to sell or leave their forested land, and whether or not to actively manage. Family forest landowners constitute an older population relative to the general population, and, the life expectancy of these landowners is a critical factor determining future land transitions, as well as patterns of management and land use. In this paper, we conduct a survival analysis using life tables and estimate that the average family forest landowner in the USA has a life expectancy of 21.0 additional years and an 89.3% chance of surviving the next five years. Five-year survivorship is a significant predictor of future plans to transfer land, as well as future intentions to actively manage. Additionally, at least in the Northeastern USA, survivorship significantly predicts filing wills and establishing land trusts. These results suggest that landowners may be consciously or subconsciously aware of their declining life expectancy and may be taking it into account when making decisions regarding estate planning and land management.