Refugees through the eyes of locals; a study on tolerance towards outer groups in Turkey and Germany

Abstract

Abstract In 2019, around 1% of the world’s population was displaced, among whom 26 million are expected to be refugees. The arrival of refugees has been related to prejudice and intolerance towards outer groups. This paper investigates the effect of refugee influx on tolerance towards outer groups, immigrants and foreigners, other races, and religions in Europe’s two largest refugee-receiving countries, Turkey and Germany. For this study, individual-level data from the World Value Survey (WVS) and European Value Survey (EVS) is used in a quasi-experimental setup, difference in difference (DID) strategy for the Turkish context, and pre-post intervention regression analysis for the latter. The results showed that the refugee influx positively influenced tolerance in both countries in the short run. However, the Turkish population became less tolerant over time. As the European Union (EU) has a definite role in influencing migration and refugee integration through its laws and funding, individuals with confidence in the EU became more tolerant toward outer groups. The results are robust to several falsification and placebo tests. These findings provide important implications for government bodies and policymakers to promote integration and understanding among diverse communities.