Climate Change Impact on the Trigger of Natural Disasters Over East Southeastern Himalayas Foothill Region of Myanmar: Extreme Rainfall Analysis

Abstract

Abstract The study examines the characteristics and variability of monsoon rainfall in Myanmar, focusing on the relationship between heavy rainfall, floods, and earthquakes, which impact agriculture, hydrology, and the environment. However, heavy rainfall can cause flooding, economic losses, and water table changes. In northern Myanmar, floods occur mainly during the monsoon season from June to October and can be classified into widespread floods along major rivers like Ayeyarwady, Thanlwin, Chindwin, and Sittoung, and flash floods in small streams and rivers. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, which can trigger floods or landslides, which can in turn cause earthquakes. Heavy rainfall over northern Myanmar and the Sagaing faults, which are the main trigger of earthquakes, has been the subject of several studies. The study uses the Copernicus 5 database of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations with two scenarios analysis on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to study changes in climatic extremes. Results show high intensity in the northern region and monsoon core region, while the central region shows less intensity. The study also uses intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves to analyze the relationship between rainfall duration, intensity, and return time in major risk zones. The study finds that as short duration lengthens, rainfall intensity increases, while long duration patterns dominate for future rainfall. This information is expected to be convenient for local authorities and flood protection projects in rural and urban basins.