Measuring the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on intra-regional intermediate exports in Africa: A matching approach

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the proportion of intra-regional intermediate exports in Africa. We utilized data from the Initiative for Regional Integration in Africa (IIRA) for the year 2019 and employed a matching method with Caliper. Our findings indicate that the signing of the AfCFTA leads to an average decrease of 0.02374 in the share of intra-regional intermediate exports. However, this relationship is not statistically significant at the 5% level. These results are in contrast with the predictions of the International Monetary Fund (2020) and the findings of other studies. The discrepancy may be attributed to various factors, including the level of implementation of the AfCFTA and the specific reforms needed to maximize its potential long-term benefits, which are areas that warrant further investigation. JEL classification : F13, F15, O55